Fears and other suspected risk factors for carrying lethal weapons among urban youths of middle-school age
A. Arria, G. Borges and J. C. Anthony
Department of Mental Hygiene, School of Hygiene and Public Health, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Md, USA.
OBJECTIVE: To estimate the strength of a suspected causal association
between fearfulness and carrying a lethal weapon among urban middle-school
students, while holding constant other suspected risk factors. DESIGN: A
prospective study of an epidemiological sample assessed at baseline in 1992
and 1 year later, with relative risk estimates derived from the conditional
form of the multiple logistic regression model used to hold constant
alternative explanatory variables. SETTING: An urban environment in the
mid-Atlantic region of the United States. PARTICIPANTS: An epidemiological
sample of 1131 youths enrolled in public middle schools. MAIN OUTCOME
MEASURES: Carrying a lethal weapon for protection or defense during a
1-year observation interval after the baseline assessment of fears and
other suspected risk factors. RESULTS: Of the 1131 youths, 194 (17%)
reported carrying a lethal weapon for protection or defense during the
1-year interval of follow-up observation after baseline; 937 youths (83%)
reported that they had not carried a lethal weapon for any reason.
Self-reported fears, deviant peer affiliation, and worrying were associated
with risk of starting to carry a weapon. For youths with the lowest
worrying scores, the lowest neighborhood danger scores, and the least
affiliation with deviant peers, self-reported fears were associated with
risk of starting to carry a lethal weapon (relative risk estimate, 1.68;
95% confidence interval, 1.11-2.52; P = .01), even after holding constant
age, sex, and conduct problems. However, the fear of crowded or closed-in
places and the fear of leaving home alone were more salient risk factors
than the fear of using public transportation or the fear of open spaces.
CONCLUSIONS: In this study, youths with fears were at greater risk of
carrying a lethal weapon for protection or defense, even when alternative
explanatory variables were taken into account. Pending confirmation by
other investigators, this new finding could point out a useful target for
public health interventions to reduce the carrying of weapons and
associated violence in urban America.
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